Gaze Into My Crystal Ball
Somewhere between the third and the (always a mistake) fourth Manhattan over the holidays, I found myself in a transcendental trance that ripped the very fabric of the space-time continuum. I was able to look deeply into my past, a relatively mistake-laden era and also see off into the future. Since I like to keep my own future a mystery to me, I looked into our collective future. Here are the fearless predictions for 2010.
January: In an effort to “start the new year right,” new marketing campaigns will hit the ground running, extolling the glories of “new service, new low rates, and free breakfast and/or lunch and/or dinner.” These campaigns will cost a combined $4.5 million. Occupancy increases by 1.75% and net additional profits will total $17.53. Sales and Marketing people deem the effort a complete success. Most chefs shake their heads and mutter something profane under their breaths.
February 2010: Most F&B folks are beginning to ponder things in their operations since cutbacks have forced many managers into doing more day-to-day functions. Questions pop up like: Why do we need all that liquor on a banquet bar? Why do I have dark and light crème de cacao on that same banquet bar? Green and white crème de menthe, are you kidding me? How many grasshoppers are we serving? If I sell approximately 50 bottles of wine a month, do I really need a fifty-bottle wine list? Streamlining happens in a big way. Spring menus start to get written. F&B people realize that, yes, the capital plan was approved and, no, we’re not getting squat.
March 2010: The government declares the recession is indeed over. There is much rejoicing. Relishing the news, most hotels tell their owners they’ll only miss GOP by 15% for the quarter. The owners are less than thrilled. A steady increase of high quality, in-house coffee products is seen in the form of kiosks and cafes, since we finally figured out the $8 dollar venti-soy-latte-cappa-frappa-no-whip-half-skim craze isn’t going away. Starbucks Corporation reportedly says, “Well, duh.”
April 2010: Most hotels realize there are three or four places in town that are known for doing Easter brunch really well. So they let them do it and save a ton of labor and product cost. Spending money wisely continues. Servers and cooks who have been saving really good, albeit phony, excuses for why they need the day off are understandably disappointed. Fans of Arbor Day fear their hopes of a glorious buffet are doomed. In sports news, with the 2010 season just weeks old, the Pittsburgh Pirates are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.
May 2010: Another sign of economic recovery appears. Brides who once had $45 dollars per person to spend are now coming in with a budget of $46.50. Congress hails this as a “return to the boom time.” Also, due to swift movement on the healthcare reform bill, each employee who is injured on the job will now receive $1.8 million dollars. This entitles them to a three-hour stay at the emergency room, ten minutes in front of an actual doctor, 200 mg of ibuprofen, and a SpongeBob SquarePants Band-Aid.
June 2010: Lady GaGa eats a caper and claims, “It was salty.” Every news organization in the country picks up the story. The beef industry raises prices due to “recent events in the news” and, oddly, no one seems to notice that cows and capers have nothing to do with each other. Thousands of watermelons are then recalled but mostly because watermelons feel they could use the press.
July 2010: A hotel in California has created an ultra-high-end, organic, triple-filtered frozen fruit juice that is placed on a stick-like serving device. The Kardashians become fans and the price rises to $13 a piece. Several trade publications pick up the story. Most everyone in the Midwest eating a popsicle thinks most everyone in California is nuts. Attempting to cash in a growing nostalgia market and get adults to relive their childhoods, Coca-Cola announces that Dasani water will now taste like “the hose” for just under $8 a bottle.
August 2010: The GM announces it’s not too early to think about next year’s budget. Otherwise, it’s hot and miserable. No real holidays exist. Group business is down. No real point to August, so let’s just skip it.
September 2010: Catering managers around the country wonder when the 2010 holiday menus are going to be out since they’re getting “lots of calls.” They will send this request for 15 straight days. These calls will abruptly stop on September 16th. At this point, all inquiries will be to use last year’s menus at last year’s prices because “the clients really liked it.” Chefs all over the country are treated for head trauma from banging their heads against their desks.
October 2010: All catering departments announce that sales for holiday parties are drastically down. In an effort to add some spark to this trend, ads will be placed in all local media. These ads will cost a combined $500,000. Holiday party business increases by 1.75% and net additional profits will total $17.53. Sales and Marketing people deem the effort a complete success. F&B operations begin to tighten their belts since “we don’t want to blow the year in these last two months.”
November 2010: With the holidays looming, on-call servers who have bugged you for additional shifts for 42 straight weeks will suddenly fall off the face of the earth, and you are now understaffed. Sensing we’re being fiscally conservative, every piece of equipment that has been limping along for ten months will suddenly break. The banquet department will suddenly announce, “We don’t have enough plates/teaspoons/Champagne flutes,” etc. Even though you asked and were given 100% assurance that “We have you taken care of,” your purveyors will suddenly be completely out of something from your holiday menus, both this year’s and last.
December 2010: Proclaims that if 2011 is as tough as 2010, you’re going to quit the business and do something else because you’re sick of this. Have it pointed out that you said the same thing at the end of both ’08 and ’09. Consider firing the pointer-outer, have a cocktail, and realize you love it no matter what…
Happy New Year and a successful 2010 to all!




Peter Gebauer posted: 04 Jan at 4:51 pm
Pretty witty Karl.
One has to keep a sense of humor.
Keep looking and sharing your crystal ball.
Peter G.
Scott Blackerby posted: 02 Feb at 11:10 am
How true and funny!
Thanks for the insight and much need stress break.
Scott B